FIFA World Cup 2026
Tournament forecast
Title probabilities for every remaining team, based on the current fixture state, confirmed results, and simulated outcomes for the open knockout path.
Spain
100.00%
Argentina
41.69%
France
29.47%
England
24.18%
Brazil
7.53%
Portugal
5.97%
Morocco
3.45%
Colombia
2.68%
United States
2.51%
Norway
2.50%
Mexico
1.85%
Belgium
1.52%
Switzerland
0.93%
Senegal
0.65%
Ecuador
0.65%
Croatia
0.51%
Ivory Coast
0.44%
Canada
0.43%
Paraguay
0.37%
Sweden
0.34%
Austria
0.28%
Egypt
0.26%
Australia
0.26%
Algeria
0.21%
Ghana
0.18%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.13%
DR Congo
0.11%
Cape Verde
0.10%
Market-implied probabilities (no-vig, avg. of several bookmakers), as of 20.07.2026, 07:33.
Forecast simulation
Final
๐ช๐ธ Spain - ๐ฆ๐ท Argentina
1:0