FIFA World Cup 2026

Tournament forecast

Title probabilities for every remaining team, based on the current fixture state, confirmed results, and simulated outcomes for the open knockout path.

Spain 100.00%
Argentina 41.69%
France 29.47%
England 24.18%
Brazil 7.53%
Portugal 5.97%
Morocco 3.45%
Colombia 2.68%
United States 2.51%
Norway 2.50%
Mexico 1.85%
Belgium 1.52%
Switzerland 0.93%
Senegal 0.65%
Ecuador 0.65%
Croatia 0.51%
Ivory Coast 0.44%
Canada 0.43%
Paraguay 0.37%
Sweden 0.34%
Austria 0.28%
Egypt 0.26%
Australia 0.26%
Algeria 0.21%
Ghana 0.18%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.13%
DR Congo 0.11%
Cape Verde 0.10%

Market-implied probabilities (no-vig, avg. of several bookmakers), as of 20.07.2026, 07:33.

Forecast simulation

Final ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain - ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina 1:0